Rob Pritchard receiving his award

Many residents of East End, New Yatt and North Leigh will recognise the smiling face of Rob Pritchard, the Southern Electric “Meter Man” who has been helping residents save energy and configure their current cost meters. Last year he was awarded an Excellence Award by the SSE Chairman Lord Smith who said:

“Rob has embraced the role of community energy adviser with enthusiasm and passion. He has built invaluable relations within the community for SSE. Many people know him by name and stop him to talk about reducing energy consumption.”

Everyone at Challenge North Leigh congratulates Rob on this timely recognition of his hard work.

Why not visit Rob’s Facebook page and become a fan! He’s also on Twitter!

...Olga...

At the Green Picnic, ‘Olga’ said she had taken the first steps to save energy and asked what she should do next. Here are ideas for all of us to think about.

Begin by recognising that the best energy saving device is the Off Switch so:
Switch off lights every time you leave a room unoccupied
Turn off the heating in unused rooms
Switch televisions, computers, etc off when not in use, don’t leave them on Standby
Only switch on outside lights when required for residents or visitors.

Move on to the finer points of switching off
Don’t leave electric toothbrushes, mobile phones, cameras or other batteries on charge
longer than necessary
Switch off cookers, bread-making machines and other appliances with integral clocks at the wall switch – their timers consume a few Watts throughout the year
Switch off motion detector lights during the day – otherwise their sensors are on all year
Reduce hot water thermostat settings to the 55 degrees C which is said to be necessary to avoid bacterial contamination of hot water tanks
Energy is wasted if you have to add lots of cold water to the hot every time

Install low energy light bulbs
There are now versions available for most applications
They light up quickly and are available in various soft and hard white tones

In the kitchen and laundry
Only fill kettles with the quantity of water you really need for tea, coffee etc
But ensure the elements of electric kettles are covered
Don’t run the hot tap a long time to get small amount of hot water, use the kettle
Use an appropriate size hob for every pan
Only use washing machines and dishwashers for full loads
Using economy wash cycles where appropriate
But note that dishwasher “Quickwash” cycles may use more energy than longer cycles
Install a clothes line and dry washing outdoors whenever possible
Have a baby in nappies? Use the modern, shaped, washable ones

Minimise use of energy for refrigeration by
Minimising opening of refrigerator and freezer doors
Keeping refrigerators at least three quarters full
Always allowing hot food to cool before putting it in the refrigerator
Defrosting frozen food in the refrigerator, never ever in the microwave
Returning items to refrigerator as soon as possible after use
Defrosting freezers regularly

Reduce heating energy needs in winter by
Wearing warmer clothes before turning up the heating
Drawing curtains and blinds early in the evening to minimise heat loss
Closing doors to minimise heat rising from living rooms to bedrooms
Using the minimum thermostat settings for your health and comfort
18 to 21 degrees C is suggested for living areas
If you have a porch or lobby with inner and outer doors, minimise the time they are open at the same time – especially when it’s blowing a gale – as it can do in North Leigh!

And then consider investing in
Loft and wall insulation
A replacement condensing boiler
‘A’ or ‘A*’ replacement white goods
Double glazing – even if you live in a listed building it may be possible to install low cost, effective double glazing – ring Geoff Feasey on 01993 883494 to discuss how
Solar water heating
Photo-voltaic or wind powered generation.
Contact SSE’s Rob Pritchard on 07747 559330 if you need advice on these
Motion sensor outside lights to replace ordinary switched lights

Nearly all the above ideas save both energy and your money. They just require resolve, a little foresight and a few moments of your time. Individual savings may be small but every little helps and over a year the savings should be significant. An our actions help to motivate others to do their bit!

If you think of something we’ve missed, please tell us! New ideas are always welcome.

A Three Degree Rise – and beyond? A Summary of Conclusions.

In the “three degree” scenario, Africa will be split between the north, which will see a recovery of rainfall, and the south, which becomes drier and beyond human adaptation. Wind speeds will double leading to serious erosion of the Kalahari desert.

The last time the world experienced a three degree temperature rise was during the geological Pliocene Age (3 million years ago). The historical period of the earth’s history was undoubtedly due to high CO2 levels (about 360 – 440ppm – almost exactly current levels)

Likely to see major increase in activity of the so-called “el nino” effect. In such a scenario, the following are likely:-

• UK can expect drier winters

• Indian monsoon rains will fail. Monsoons are essential to 60% of the world’s population. In a 3° world monsoons will become more variable either failing entirely or causing devastating flooding.

• The Himalayan glaciers provide the waters of the Indus, Ganges and Brahmaputra, the Mekong, Yangtze and Yellow rivers. In the early stages of global warming these glaciers will release more water but eventually decreasing by up to 90%. Pakistan will suffer most, as will China’s hydro-electric industry.

• Amazonian rain forest basin will dry our completely with consequent bio-diversity disasters

• In Brazil, Venezuela, Columbia, East Peru and Bolivia life will become increasingly difficult due to wild fires which will cause intense air pollution and searing heat. The smoke will blot out the sun.

• Drought will be permanent in the sub-tropics and Central America

• Australia will become the world’s driest nation. Days when the temperatures exceed 40° will increase sixfold, the drought frequency will triple and rainfall plummet by 25% with extreme winds. Australia’s main rivers for water supply will lose between 25% and 50% of their flow. Perth particularly vulnerable.

• The western seaboard of the US will be especially vulnerable to drought. Snowmelt will reduce dramatically. Snowless Springs, hotter summers, harsher droughts and wild fires without water to fight them will become common-place.

• By contrast, New York will have too much water! It will be subject to storm surges. Sea levels are already 25cms higher. At 3° sea levels will rise to up to 1 metre above present levels. A 1 in a 100 year storm will happen every 20 years by 2050 and every forth year by 2080.

• In London, too, although the Thames Barrier will continue to give some protection, a 1 in 150 year storm will occur every 7 or 8 years by 2080.

• In the US Gulf of Mexico high sea temperatures will drive 180+ mph winds. Houston will be vulnerable to flooding by 2045. Galveston will be inundated.

• Hurricanes will devastate places as far removed as Texas, the Caribbean and Shanghai.

• A 3° rise will see more extreme cyclones tracking across the Atlantic and striking the UK, Spain, France and Germany. Holland will become very vulnerable. By 2070 northern Europe will have 20% more rainfall and at the same time the Mediterranean will be slowly turning to a desert.

• East Africa will become more humid encouraging a greater incidence of malaria and dengue fever.

• In the Arctic 80% of sea ice will have melted.

• Some northern regions will benefit from longer growing seasons (Norway, Finland) but will not compensate for loss of production elsewhere.

• Many plant species will become extinct as they will be unable to adapt to such a sudden change in climate. More than half Europe’s plant species will be on the “red list”.

The International Panel on Climate Change in its 2007 report concluded that all major planetary granaries will require adaptive measures at 2.5° temperature rise regardless of precipitation rates. US southern states worst affected, Canada may benefit. The IPCC reckons that a 2.5° temperature rise will see food prices soar. Population transfers will be bigger than anything ever seen in the history of mankind. This will inevitably lead to conflict and international wars.

Worse still, a “vicious circle” will develop under the three degree scenario:-

• Amazon rain forests dry out

• Wild fires develop

  • Fires release more CO2. In the Indonesian peat fires of ‘97/’98 2 billion EXTRA tonnes of CO2 were released

• Global warming intensifies as a result

• Vegetation and soil begins to release CO2 rather than to absorb it.

• Could push the 3° scenario to a 4° to 5.5° situation. (International Panel on Climate Change worst case scenario).

Many thanks to Colin Carritt for producing this sobering summary.

Geoff Feasey

5^th October 2009

Book Cover

In his book Mark refers to a vast library of scientific reports and studies in order to outline the effects on the planet of climate change equivalent to global temperature rises of one, two, three, four, five and six degrees. Colin Carritt of Sustainable Woodstock has summarised the conclusions for each degree rise and has kindly given permission for us to publish the summaries on the CNL website. This article covers the one and two degree rise situations.

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One Degree

Return of the “Mid-west American dust bowl” but with greater vengeance.

Africa’s three highest peaks will have lost half their glacial area compared to 1987. This will affect downstream water supply, wildlife and bio-diversity.

The Arctic “tipping point” is coming. Already:-

• world temp has risen 0.7°C over past 10 years

• we have lost permafrost that has led to the draining of 10,000 lakes worldwide

• each year an extra 10,000 sq km of ocean is created from melting artic ice sheet

• in Sept 2005 an area of the arctic ice sheet the size of Alaska vanished.

Snow and ice reflect 80% of sun’s heat whereas the dark ocean absorbs 90% of the sun’s heat.

Rock-falls will be widespread in alpine regions due to loss of alpine permafrost

• which will have implications for population settlements in those regions.

Coral reefs are already in serious danger. Some 70% of reefs world-wide are dead or dying.

The increase in hurricane activity is due to warmer oceans

• in 2004 the first ever hurricane in Brazil in the southern hemisphere, a certain sign of climate disturbance

• hurricane Vince landed in Huelve, Spain, the first tropical cyclone ever recorded in Europe.

• hurricanes in 2005 (Katrina, Wilma, Rita, etc.) killed 1000 people left 1,000,000 homeless and caused $200 billion damage

The lives of ¼ million people on tropical attols are threatened eg Tuvalu (probably lost already), Kribati, Marshall Islands, Tokelau and the Maldives.

Two Degrees

By now, the release of greenhouse gases are beginning to alter the oceans. Just two degrees of global warmimg may render some parts of the southern oceans toxic to CaCO3 and thus to one of life’s essential building blocks, plankton.

Heatwaves.

• in Europe in 2003 35,000 people died prematurely due to heat related illnesses

• crop losses were $12 billion

• forest fires cost $1.5 billion

With 2° warming, summers like 2003 will occur almost every other summer.

Wildfires may penetrate as far north as the Baltic coast

Glacial melt rates will double. One particular Greenland glacier has already thinned by 15 metres every year since 1995 and the flow rate has doubled.

If the entire Greenland ice sheet were to melt (possible with 2° though it would take perhaps 140 years) then Miami, Manhattan, London, Bombay, Bangkok, and Shanghai, to name but a few, would be inundated.

The disappearance of mountain glaciers and snow-pack will create water shortages

• in the Indian sub-continent, Peru, Ecuador and Bolivia

• by 2050 the Andes glaciers will have shrunk by 40% – 60%

• crippling droughts can be anticipated in Los Angeles and California.

• From Nebraska to Texas the anticipated drought would be many times worse than the 1930s “dust bowl” phenomenon.

• polar bears would probably rapidly become extinct.

• the tundra would disappear releasing massive volumes of methane (a major greenhouse gas)

The Mediterranean countries will become drier and hotter with significant water shortages.

• sea level rise may affect the homes of millions around the world as the sea invades low lying cities

• IPCC estimate sea level rise of 18 to 59 cm – many say the figure will be more

• monsoons would increase in India and Bangladesh leading to mass migration of its populations.

Crop Production.

• some areas would benefit – Indiana, Illinois, Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin – where yields might double. Canada will be a net beneficiary.

• citrus growers in Miami may benefit provided they are not hit by hurricanes.

• in the UK sweet corn, soft fruits and vegetables may benefit.

• but maize, a staple for so many will suffer particularly in Central and South America

• most of Africa will suffer loss of production

• US soya bean production will be cut by 50%

• international food price stability will have to be agreed to prevent widespread starvation.

· “Nature 2004” estimate that more than a third of all species will suffer potential extinction at 2° C rise

Readers:

You should be aware that if the climate change world summit in Copenhagen in December 2009 cannot agree to act to limit the rise to two degrees, the science suggests that changes may escalate out of control.

The predictions for three and four degrees will be published next month.

Geoff Feasey

16^th September 2009

Last month I tackled the question “How worried should we be”? Since then I’ve begun to read Mark Lynas’ book “Six Degrees”, subtitled “Our future on a hotter planet”. It’s the best review of the available science, economic and political analyses that I’ve discovered and I’ve allowed myself the indulgence of studying the last chapter before reading all the preceding ones so I can pass on without delay the essence of the exhaustive studies which earned Mark the Royal Society’s medal for Communicating Science.

Summarised brutally for the sake of brevity, he reports that:

Past CO2 emissions will cause global temperatures to rise by 0.5 to 1 degree Celsius:

• Alpine glaciers, Nebraskan grazing lands and coral reefs are condemned.

Modelling suggests we probably have time to stabilise at 2 degrees warmer:

• Slowing melting of Greenland ice and the rise in sea levels

• And avoiding dangerous global feedbacks likely around 3 degrees.

Avoidance is vital to prevent Amazonian rainforest collapse and soil carbon release:

• Which would lead to a 4 degree world

• Siberian permafrost would release carbon and methane quicker

• Perhaps leading to a 5 degree world.

At 5 degrees release of oceanic methane could catapult us to 6 degrees:

• And the “ultimate mass extinction apocalypse”.

The lesson is clear: we must hold to a 2 degree rise.

How do things stand now?

One analyst calculates a 7% chance that we are already too late.

But that means we have a 93% chance of limiting the rise to 2 degrees:

• But only if we hold atmospheric CO2 concentrations at the present level

• Every year of rising levels shortens the odds.

The level was 382 ppm in 2007:

• And it is still rising at about 2 ppm per year

For a 75% chance of limiting to 2 degrees:

• Emissions must peak at 400 ppm in 2015

• Then decline by 85 % by 2050.

• However politically impossible that seems at present.

How can it be done?

That’s another story, one which hasn’t been written yet. However, it should begin with recognition that climate change is the key question facing humanity, more significant than terrorism, war, healthcare, education, religion, etc. It will be a story of over-population, human behaviour in all its forms: greed, frailty, inertia, selfishness. If we wish we could just call it, as the filmmakers did, “Stupidity”.

While waiting for policy makers and scientists to reconcile their differences nationally and internationally, we should do whatever we can to help: assuring the policy makers that we recognise the importance of the science, and that we need action and leadership to safeguard our future.

We should be pleased that, “The world is waking up to climate change”. And be pleased that in North Leigh we are doing our own little bit to help.

Geoff Feasey

12^th August 2009

How worried should we be about climate change?

A personal commentary for anyone who is interested.

What will happen if we just go on with our lives as if nothing is changing? If we believe we should change our ways, by how much should we change? And if we have to change, how long have we got?

Suggested answers range from “Business as usual” to “It may be too late” and “For some it is too late”.

The first response is typified by ex-Vice President Cheney and his oil and gas industry colleagues who have just increased the industry’s funds for lobbying and advertising by 50%. Also by the US speaker who confidently asserted that unlimited fusion power would be available before things get tough in about thirty years time – cold comfort for the 300,000 dying and 3 million people already said by the Global Humanitarian Forum to be affected each year by abnormal heatwaves, floods, fires and storms.

The gloomiest view I’ve read is that of the eminent but controversial scientist Dr James Lovelock. In “The Vanishing Face of Gaia” he postulates, at worst, the near-extinction of mankind as a result of the combination of our massive over-population of the planet and global warming. I’m condensing his arguments unmercifully to say he believes we must base our expectations more on the inexorable rise in the levels and acidification of the oceans, because these variables cannot fluctuate as rapidly as the temperatures used for most climate modelling. The best he can foresee is the survival, “sometime later in this century” of remnants of human population in ‘lifeboat islands’ such as the British Isles, Tasmania and New Zealand.

Between the above extremes, over a quarter of a million internet references tell us that governments are edging towards recognition of a need to reduce global CO2 emissions more severely: Maryland for example wants to cut 25% of their 2006 level by 2020; the Alliance of Small Island States 85% of 1990 levels by 2050. The intergovernmental conference in Copenhagen in December will be a critical event in setting the international policy agenda and a vast amount of preliminary work is underway, far too much for a part-time amateur to study.

Should we just sit back and await the outcome? I think not. When there is doubt about the wisdom of a course of action, engineers act to minimise the risks to life. Scientists are not always able to persuade governments to do likewise. And democratic governments are always cautious about telling us bad news – “don’t want to frighten the horses”. So my answer to the question in the title is: although we cannot hope to digest all the evidence and studies on climate change, we should be worried enough to want to persuade our government to over-react now rather than risk deferring action until it may be too late.

We should all think how we can influence our government. For example, campaigns by the Women’s Institute, Youth Groups and the churches could send a message to the government that action was expected and that initiatives to “Play it safe” would be welcomed, not opposed. We should all make it clear in any way we can that action to safeguard our children’s future will be welcomed even if it means goodbye to some of our freedoms and pleasures, such as frequent overseas holidays and, in my case, return trips to Australia every couple of years. And while exerting that influence we should also remember to “Think global. Act local” and save energy in our homes and at our work.

Geoff Feasey

15^th June 2009

Try to reduce your energy consumption. Every little helps and if we reduce our electricty usage by 10% then we qualify for the £20,000 community reward from SSE.

Everyone who wants a Current Cost Meter should now have one (let us know if you haven’t or contact Rob Pritchard at the library). Are you using it to monitor your energy usage?

Has anyone noticed that interesting socket on the bottom of the unit? I’ve been investigating it and it is possible to download energy usage data to your computer! It’s quite technical so not for the feint of heart, but anyone who is interested can contact the group for more details.